ASEAN: Still Relevant

A forum's successes suggest that Asean is back in business after five years of free fall

By Barry Wain/BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN, BRUNEI

Issue cover-dated August 15, 2002

UNITED STATES SECRETARY OF STATE Colin Powell strode into the delegates' lounge at precisely 9:25 a.m. and asked that North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun be informed he was there. Without delay, Paek appeared and they shook hands. Then the two men sat down for a 15-minute chat.

With that diplomatic minuet, staged in Brunei on July 31 on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Regional Forum on security, the situation on the Korean Peninsula no longer seemed so threatening. Tensions, inflamed by a deadly naval battle between North and South Korea in late June, eased and the way was opened for Washington, as well as its South Korean and Japanese allies, to resume a dialogue with Pyongyang. Powell's breakthrough was delicately orchestrated to avoid either side losing face by asking for a meeting.

And with that triumph, providing the appropriate venue at the right time for a "spontaneous" encounter, Asean let it be known that it was back. After five years of free fall that began with the regional financial crisis in 1997, the group is again getting some respect. One example: The following day, Powell signed a joint declaration with Asean to combat international terrorism, saying it could be a model for similar agreements with other countries or institutions.

In reality, Asean never collapsed as dramatically as its most vocal critics would have it. Then again, Asean was never quite the unique organization that its most ardent proponents once insisted. As Rodolfo Severino, Asean's secretary general, says, "I think things are being put into better perspective now."

Asean owed much of its reputation to the economic success of its original members, and their gradual recovery is helping restore the association's standing. The 10 countries are projecting 3.5% to 4% average economic growth this year, according to official statistics. Asian Development Bank figures show that Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand--together with China and South Korea, part of the Asean Plus Three grouping--grew 5.3% in the first quarter this year, up from 3.8% in the preceding quarter and 4.3% for all of 2001.

A greater sense of realism is beginning to permeate Asean's ranks. "There is a dawning realization that the world doesn't owe us anything, and so we'd better try to get our act together," says one senior Southeast Asian official. Asean still has a long way to go to integrate its four newer and less developed members--Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam--and establish a single market that can compete in an era of globalization, especially with a rising China.

The Asean Free Trade Area is making headway, with the first six signatories achieving tariff levels of 0% to 5% on almost all goods traded among them on January 1. But Asean is having problems grappling with non-tariff barriers, such as product standards, customs and transportation.

"We like to tell potential investors and others that the Asean population is fully half that of China but with a gross domestic product that is China's equal," Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo wrote in The Asian Wall Street Journal on July 30. "This will, however, remain an empty boast if the integration of the Asean economy lags behind China's integration with the global economy."

THE U.S. WAKES UP
Another factor in Asean's comeback is that the realism is spreading as well to the West, especially the U.S., which had become prone to "bad-mouthing Asean gratuitously," as the senior official puts it. Western governments, realizing that China never stopped taking Asean seriously, have rejoined the manoeuvring for influence in Southeast Asia. In addition, they recognize that there is nothing better than Asean to try to maintain order in a part of the region that, since September 11, is considered strategically important again.

President George W. Bush's administration has reversed the drift, deliberately turning to Asean as a group, as opposed to member countries. Before, hardly anything happened between the Jakarta-based Asean Secretariat and "official Washington," says Severino. Now, "we are talking about" agriculture, intellectual property rights, information technology, HIV/Aids and how the secretariat can be strengthened, among other things, he says. While warning that the increased cooperation shouldn't be exaggerated, Severino nevertheless says it shows "symbolically, politically and in concrete terms" how an enlightened U.S. is prepared to deal with Asean.
 
 
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